人口数量和消费需求分析翻译-中英对照
我国以占世界9%的耕地、6%的水资源、4%的森林、1.8%的石油、0.7%的天然气、不足9%的铁矿石、不足5%的铜矿和不足2%的铝土矿，养活着占世界22%的人口；大多数矿产资源人均占有量不到世界平均水平的一半，我国占有的煤、油、天然气人均资源只及世界人均水平的55%、11%和4%。未来人口的持续增长和经济消费能力的提高，进一步加剧资源环境压力。
预计2010年，全国人口总量将达到13.6亿人；2020年达到14.5亿人左右。城市化水平将进一步提高，预计到2010年，全国城镇化率提高到47％，到2020年，全国城镇化水平达55-58％。随着经济、人口和城市化的快速发展，我国未来资源消费需求将进一步提升。据有关部门预测，2006-2010年全国每年需要增加供水能力300亿立方米，生产生活供水能力需要增加43%；到2010年，全国城镇建设用地的年均增长速度为5.5％，到2020年，年均增长速度为2.25％～2.9％；2010年能源需求约为26.1亿吨标准煤，到2020年，能源需求约为40亿吨标准煤；2010年和2020年的人均直接和间接消费粮食的数量分别为405千克和410千克，2010年的粮食总需求量将达到5.5亿吨（原粮），2020年的粮食总需求量约为5.9亿吨（原粮）。土地资源、水资源、能源需求的增长将进一步增加对区域生态环境的压力，造成农田、森林、湿地等生态服务价值高的土地被占用，区域生态系统失衡。粮食需求增长一方面导致大量不适宜开发的土地被开垦为农田，另一方面可能导致一些重要的生态用地如湖泊、滩涂被占用。能源消耗的大量增长将进一步增加温室气体的排放，并加剧环境污染。目前，中国的二氧化硫和二氧化碳排放量分别居世界第一位和第二位。
3、国际履约任务还非常艰巨
国际公约影响力逐步显现。随着经济全球化发展，我国环境保护国际协作进一步加强，十七大报告提出 “环保上互相帮助、协力推进，共同呵护人类赖以生存的地球家园”。履行国际公约开始成为深刻影响我国生态环境保护的重要因素之一，我国是生物多样性保护公约、联合国气候变化框架公约、联合国防治荒漠化公约和湿地公约的缔约国，且均为最早缔约国之一，国际公约对于我国生态环境保护工作的影响力日益凸现。
表2-1 我国加入的主要生态保护国际公约及其宗旨
主要生态保护国际公约 宗旨
生物多样性保护公约 制定并实施对濒危物种施行保护的法律，扩大生物物种的自然保护区，努力恢复已遭到损害的动植物种群，提高公众对自然保护和维护生物资源必要性的认识。
联合国气候变化框架公约 旨在控制大气中二氧化碳、甲烷和其他造成“温室效应”的气体的排放，将温室气体的浓度稳定在使气候系统免遭破坏的水平上。
联合国防治荒漠化公约 在发生严重干旱和／或荒漠化的国家，尤其是在非洲，防治荒漠化，缓解干旱影响，以期协助受影响的国家和地区实现可持续发展。
湿地公约 保护和合理利用全球湿地
履约能力尚有差距。在未来很长一段时期内，我国仍将处于社会主义初级阶段，国家面临巨大的发展压力的同时还将面国际公约的约束，履约工作还在不断努力和探索，我国生态保护现状和生态环境保护管理体制、能力与国际公约要求差距还很大，未来履约的任务非常艰巨。
表2-2 我国对于主要国际公约的履约现状分析
国际公约 履约要求 现状差距 潜在影响
生物多样性保护公约 实现生物多样性各个层次，包括生态系统、物种和基因的保护目标 相关的战略规划与行动制定后难以实施；社会重视程度不高，投入较低，组织协调能力薄弱。 对我国具有较强的约束力；为我国制定战略和规划起到了支持和指导作用，逐步为物种及遗传资源的国际交易提供公平合理的机制和平台;为发展中国家的生物物种资源保护和利用技术开发提供了支持和帮助的渠道，便于我国获得先进国家的资金和技术支持。
联合国气候变化框架公约 目前，我国为非附录I国家，但有义务编制国家温室气体排放源和汇的清单，制定适应和减缓气候变化的国家战略，在社会、经济和环境政策中考虑到气候变化 我国温室气体排放量较大，CO2排放量世界第二，长期不减排将影响国际地位；由于能源结构不合理和技术支撑薄弱，节能减排的成本较大，可能会影响经济发展。 通过CDM机制，及其他的渠道，能够引入国际先进技术和资金，促进我国的生态环境保护；但是，同时如果近期就承担减排义务，将对我国经济发展产业影响，从而影响我国的生态环境保护的政府投入
联合国防治荒漠化公约 控制荒漠化速度和面积 基础较差，区域发展不平衡 是对我国极为有利的国际公约。我国荒漠化问题受到国际上的高度重视，将促进我国引入国际的先进技术和投资。
湿地公约 保护和合理利用湿地 仍然存在结构/管理/投资问题 加入公约起到了很好的促进作用，中国湿地保护受到了广泛重视，收到了很好的环境效益
Population and consumer demand continue to increase
China feeds 22% of the world population with its 9% arable land, 6% water sources, 4% forests, 1.8% oil, 0.7% natural gas, less than 9% iron ore, less than 5% copper ore and less than 2% bauxite of the world volume; the per capita occupancy of most mineral resources is less than half of the world average level and the per capita possession of coal, oil and natural gas is only 55%, 11% and 4% of the world average level respectively. Continuous growth of population and increase of economic consumption capacity in the further will further exacerbate the pressure on resources and environment.
It is estimated that, the total population in China will reach 1.36 billion by 2010 and 1.45 billion by 2020. Urbanization level will further increase and it is expected that the national urbanization ratio will rise to 47％ by 2010 and 55-58％ by 2020. With the rapid development of economy, population and urbanization, China’s resources consumption demand in future will further enhance. According to forecasts from relevant departments, from 2006 to 2010, the water supply capacity needs to increase by 30 billion cubic meters every year and the water supply capacity for production and living needs to increase by 43%; the average annual growth rate of land for urban construction in China will get to 5.5％in 2010 and 2.25％-2.9％ in 2020; energy sources demand will be about 2.61 billion tons of standard coal in 2010 and about 4 billion tons of standard coal in 2020; the per capita direct and indirect consumption of grain in 2010 and 2020 will be 405kg and 410kg respectively; the total grain demand will reach 550 million tons (raw grain) in 2010 and about 590 million tons (raw grain) in 2020. Demand growth of land resources, water resources and energy resources will further increase the pressure on the regional ecological environment, resulting in occupancy of such land with high ecological service value as farmlands, forests and wetlands and imbalance regional ecosystem. Grain demand growth on the one hand will cause a lot of land unsuitable for exploitation to be reclaimed into farmland and on the other hand could lead to some important ecological land such as lakes and beaches to be occupied. Large growth of energy consumption will further increase emissions of greenhouse gases and aggravate environmental pollution. At present, the emissions of sulfur dioxide and carbon dioxide in China are in the first and second places in the world respectively.
3. International performance task is still very arduous
Influence of international conventions emerges gradually. With the development of economic globalization, China has further strengthened international collaboration for environmental protection. It was proposed in the Report to the Seventeenth National Congress that “On environmental protection, we should help each other and work together in promotion and common love of the earth, the only home for mankind.” Performance of international conventions has become one of the important factors which have a profound impact on the ecological and environmental protection in China. China is a contracting party and also one of the earliest contracting parties of Convention on Biological Diversity, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification and Convention on Wetlands. Influence of international conventions on the ecological and environmental protection in China has become increasingly apparent.
Table 2-1 Main International Conventions on
Ecological Protection Acceded to by China and Their Tenets
Main International Conventions on
Ecological Protection Tenets
Convention on Biological Diversity To legislate and implement laws for protection of the endangered species, expand nature reserves for biological species, restore the damaged flora and fauna species and enhance the public’s awareness of the necessity in protection of nature and preservation of biological resources.
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change For the purpose of controlling the emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases and stabilizing the concentrations of greenhouse gases at a level against sabotage of the climate system.
United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification To combat desertification and mitigate the effects of drought in the countries experiencing serious drought and/or desertification, particularly in Africa, with a view to assisting the affected countries and regions to achieve sustainable development.
Convention on Wetlands To protect and reasonably utilize global wetlands
There is a gap in performance capability. For a long period in the future, China will remain in the primary stage of socialism; the country will not only be faced with tremendous development pressure but also be bound by international conventions; performance is still in ongoing efforts and exploration; ecological protection status as well as system and capacity of ecological environment protection and management are quite far away from the requirements specified in international conventions; so performance task in the future is very difficult.
Table 2-2 Analysis on Status of China’s Performance of Main International Conventions
International Convention Performance Requirements Status and Gap Potential Influences
Convention on Biological Diversity To achieve the goals on protection of biodiversity at all levels, including ecosystems, species and genes Related strategic plans and actions are difficult to implement after enactment; there is an inadequate social emphasis, a low input and a weak capacity in organization and coordination. It makes a strong binding on China; plays a role of support and guidance for China’s preparation of strategies and plans and gradually provides a fair and reasonable mechanism and platform for international transaction of the species and genetic resources; provides support and assistance channels for technology development on protection and utilization of biological species resources in developing countries; facilitates China to obtain financial and technological supports from advanced countries.
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change At present, China is a non-Annex I country, but it also has the obligations to prepare a list of emission sources and sinks of the greenhouse gases in China, develop national strategies adapting to and mitigating climate change, and take into account climate changes in the social, economic and environmental policies The emission of greenhouse gases in China is larger. The emission of CO2 is the second in world and China’s international status will be affected if the emission doesn’t decrease for a long time; due to the unreasonable energy structure and weak, technical support, the costs of energy conservation and emission reduction is larger, which may affect economic development. Through CDM mechanism and other channels, international advanced technologies and funds will be introduced into China to promote the protection of ecological environment; at the same time, however, if China is committed to emission reduction obligations recently, it will affect China’s economic development and thus affect the government input for ecological environment protection in China.
United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification To control the speed and size of desertification Poor foundation and uneven regional development It is an extremely favorable international convention to China. The problem of desertification in China is attached great importance to by the international community. It will promote the introduction of international advanced technologies and investments into China.
Convention on Wetlands To protect and reasonably utilize wetlands Problems in structure / management / investment still exist.
Acceding to the Convention has played a very good role in promoting extensive attention on wetland protection in China, enabling China to receive a very good environmental benefit.
2013.4.15